000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091008
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 05N TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVING W 
15 KT.  ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO AXIS 
INTERSECTION WITH ITCZ...BUT INTERACTION WITH LOW PRES 1008 MB 
JUST AHEAD OF WAVE CANNOT BE DISCARDED AS WAVE MOVES INTO MORE 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  

SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W N OF 05N TO GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
MOVING W 15 KT.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW SHEARING OFF ANY 
POTENTIAL DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEXT 36-48 HR.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 13N93W TO 14N99W TO 14N108W TO 
07N132W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS E OF 93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W-132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER LARGE AREA OF E PAC NW OF 
LINE FROM 26N112W TO 17N125W TO 00N135W.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH DIGS SW OVER DRY AREA CAPPING ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NW MEXICO PUSHING MODERATE ELY FLOW 
OVER LOWER LATITUDES FROM 100W-120W MAINTAINING AREA QUITE MOIST 
FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OUT OF ITCZ...BUT CURTAILS DEVELOPMENT OF 
DEEP CONVECTION.  LIGHT TO MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF 100W 
ALLOWS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W TO BUILD TSTMS OFFSHORE COAST OF 
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.  LOW PRES CENTER FORMED EARLIER TONIGHT 
AT 15N97W...ALSO CLOSE TO DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...AND LIKELY 
WILL INTERACT WITH APPROACHING WAVE TO STRENGTHEN.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
NLY WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA PRODUCING N SWELL TRAINS N 
OF 26N NOT EXPECTED TO LAST THRU COMPLETE FORECAST PERIOD.  
W TO SW FLOW JUST S OF LOW PRES AT 15N97W ADDING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE TO RECIPE FOR MORE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT IN THAT CORNER 
OF E PAC.   

$$
WALLY BARNES