000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N INTO WRN GUATEMALA IS MOVING 
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS WEAK WITH LIMITED CONVECTION 
NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W N OF 09N INTO MEXICO IS MOVING W 10 
TO 15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID 
LEVELS IS CENTERED WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 
15N97W. NWP MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS NEAR 15N101W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 05N77W TO 14N95W TO 14N105W TO 10N120W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W 
AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
95W AND 107W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 
125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 98W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
OVER THE AREA NW OF LINE 30N115W 10N140W. A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING TROUGH 32N127W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 29N128W TO 22N130W. FURTHER UPSTREAM A BROAD 
AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 20N W OF 133W 
AND MOVING WWD WITH TIME. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E TO NE WINDS 
ALOFT ARE LOCATED S OF 20N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE STRONGEST S OF 08N 
AND MEASURE 35 TO 45 KT WITH THE OVERALL FLOW DIFLUENT IN NATURE.
THIS WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 
125W. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF MODERATE SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
ARE LOCATED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W.

E OF 98W...
OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MODERATE NE WINDS ALOFT 
COVER THE AREA S OF ABOUT 12N E OF 98W IN CENTRAL AND S AMERICA. 
THE FLOW WAS STRONGLY DIFLUENT IN THE AREA TO THE S OF A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N83W.

$$
COBB