000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082208
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 08N INTO GUATEMALA IS MOVING W 10 
TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND BARELY RECOGNIZABLE ON THE LATEST 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE IS DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE ITCZ SECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W N OF 09N INTO MEXICO IS MOVING W 10 
TO 15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID 
LEVELS IS CENTERED E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 15N97W. 
NWP MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 48 
HOURS NEAR 15N100W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 05N77W TO 14N95W TO 14N105W TO 10N120W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W 
AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
95W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 98W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
OVER THE AREA NW OF LINE 30N115W 10N140W. A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 22N BETWEEN 118W AND 
130W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING TROUGH 32N127W TO 22N130W. FURTHER 
UPSTREAM A BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT IS LOCATED N 
OF 20N W OF 133W AND MOVING WWD WITH TIME. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS 
E TO NE WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED S OF 20N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
100W AND 125W. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE 
STRONGEST S OF 08N AND MEASURE 35 TO 45 KT. AT THE SURFACE AN 
AREA OF MODERATE SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ARE LOCATED FROM 07N TO 
15N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W.

E OF 98W...
OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MODERATE NE WINDS ALOFT 
COVER THE AREA S OF ABOUT 12N E OF 98W IN CENTRAL AND S AMERICA. 

$$
COBB