000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 08N INTO WESTERN HONDURAS IS 
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND BARELY RECOGNIZABLE 
ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS FEATURE IS DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE ITCZ SECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 08N INTO MEXICO IS MOVING W 10 
TO 15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT AND NEAR THE SURFACE 
IS CENTERED E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 15N98W. A 
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 48 HOURS NEAR 
15N100W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 06N77W TO 11N90W TO 15N102W TO 10N120W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A 04N77W TO 11N91W LINE AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A 16N95W TO 12N102W TO 12N111W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 98W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA N 
OF 20N W OF 115W AND ALSO FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 125W. A WEAK 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 22N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING TROUGH 32N122W TO 
22N128W. FURTHER UPSTREAM A BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC TURNING 
ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 20N W OF 133W. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E TO 
NE WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED S OF 20N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W 
AND 125W. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE STRONGEST 
S OF 08N AND MEASURE 35 TO 45 KT. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF 
MODERATE SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ARE LOCATED FROM 07N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 120W.

E OF 98W...
OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MODERATE NE WINDS ALOFT 
COVER THE AREA S OF ABOUT 12N E OF 98W IN CENTRAL AND S AMERICA. 

$$
CAB