000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER PANAMA ALONG 78W/79W N OF 2N TO THE PANAMA 
COAST AND EXTENDING N INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING W AT 10 TO 
15 KT.  SCATTERED CONVECTION GENERALLY WITHIN 50 NM OF 80W 
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PENINSULA DE AZUERO.  WEAK DIFFLUENT 
UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W WITH THE WAVE ON THE 
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 15N77W AND 
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT DAY.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND BAY OF CAMPECHE 
ALONG 94W AND N OF 8N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE 
S EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY N OF 8N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W.


...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 07N77W TO 15N96W TO 08N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE N OF 03N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N 
OF 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 128W.


...DISCUSSION...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE DEEP 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR 37N135W AND 
DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  EXPECT 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO PINCH OFF A W MIGRATING LOW 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT NEAR 28N120W...FORCING THE ANTICYCLONE 
NORTHWARD AND SLACKENING THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE OVER THE 
REGION...BUT CONTINUED STRONG N FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
BRING NORTH SWELL TO MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 15N TOMORROW.  
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN 
MOST OF REGION NORTHEAST OF 13N115W.

THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS CONTINUE TO DIRECT SURFACE FLOW 
CYCLONICALLY CENTERED AROUND 19N116W.  THE REMNANTS ARE DEVOID 
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER 
OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E CONTINUES TO TRIGGER 
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 18N 
AND 23N AND BETWEEN 105W AND 108W.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH 
THIS SYSTEM IS ONSHORE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK