000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS MOVED OVER LAND WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BUT STILL REPRESENTING A SERIOUS THREAT DUE 
TO COPIOUS RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGE WITH POSSIBILITY OF 
LANDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF WRN MEXICO. 
LAST ADVISORY FOR FIVE-E HAS BEEN ISSUED BY NHC AT 07/0900 UTC 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC.  DEPRESSION WILL 
WEAKEN TO REMNANT LOW PRES LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER GUATEMALA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W N 
OF 07N MOVING W 10 KT.  WAVE CONTINUES UNDER DIFFLUENT WINDS 
ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW TO DEEP CONVECTION NOW MAINLY ON W 
SIDE OF AXIS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.  
MODELS FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF FEATURE...GFS TYPICALLY BEING 
MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE NAM AND UKMET LAGGING BEHIND IN TIMING AND 
STRENGTH.  FORECAST TRUST THAT GFS WITH GOOD INITIALIZATION AND 
PREVIOUS HANDLING OF T.D. FIVE-E MIGHT HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN 
THE OTHERS.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 11N90W TO 13N96W TO 09N123W TO 10N130W 
TO 0N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW INTO E PAC FROM TIJUANA MEXICO TO 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 26N121W THEN TO 26N132W AND 32N137W 
DISPLACING STUBBORN RIDGE TO THE NW CORNER OF BASIN.  CONVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY 
AIR MASS N OF 14N AND W OF 115W.  FAIRLY DRY ELSEWHERE W OF 120W 
EXCEPT FOR ITCZ MEANDERING ALONG 10N TO 130W.  

E OF 115W...BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH 
EXTENDING RIDGE SE TO GUATEMALA ENHANCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND 
ALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO FLOURISH OVER T.D. FIVE-E AND 
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 89W.  OUTFLOW PRODUCES VERY MOIST 
ENVIRONMENT ALONG COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER ITCZ E OF 120W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS...DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION... 
CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR 19N116W OR NEARLY 400 NM SW OF CABO SAN 
LUCAS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  FEATURE NO LONGER MONITORED BY NHC.

W OF 115W...E SHEAR EXTENDS ACROSS THE ITCZ SOUTH OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE OFF CALIFORNIA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED ALONG THE ITCZ. SWELL WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 8 
FT WILL PUSH INTO WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W IN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB AT 38N138W PRESSING GRADIENT 
AGAINST CALIFORNIA COAST PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS WELL N OF E 
PAC BASIN BUT WITH FRESH NLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS 
N OF 27N AND E OF 130W.   

$$
WALLY BARNES