000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 102.3W...VERY 
CLOSE TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO...AT 07/0300 UTC MOVING N AT 8 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED 
AND APPEARS TO BE HEADING MORE TO THE NORTH TOWARD AND IS 
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION WILL 
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT HEADS INLAND. 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EVIDENT ALONG THE COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO 
MANZANILLO...AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 
TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF MUDSLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS ALONG 88W N OF 05N 
MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY WWD DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION REMAIN ALONG THE ITCZ AND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF 
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT AN 
AREA OF LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS AXIS 09N86W TO 16N96W TO 
10N125W TO 12N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 05N TO 09N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 96W TO 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO 
ALLOWING EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS WEAKENING T.D FIVE-E AND 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. PERSISTENT S TO SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
FLOW PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ AND 
FOMENTING SCATTERED CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE. GLOBAL MODELS 
SHOW THIS SW FLOW DIMINISHING TEMPORARILY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO...ALLOWING A MODEST REDUCTION IN CONVECTION. LOOKING AHEAD TO 
MID WEEK...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL RESURGENCE OF FRESH SW FLOW 
AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW OFF THE GUATEMALAN COAST. 
FURTHER N...THE WEAK REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND 
375 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BECOME AN 
OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

W OF 115W...E SHEAR EXTENDS ACROSS THE ITCZ SOUTH OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE OFF CALIFORNIA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED ALONG THE ITCZ. SWELL WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 8 
FT WILL PUSH INTO WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W IN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN