000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 102.8W...OR 
ABOUT 75 NM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AT 06/2100 UTC MOVING NW 
AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS 
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FEEDING INTO 
THE DEPRESSION. SEAS ARE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION IN 
THE AREA OF THESE FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS. WINDS ON THE EAST 
AND NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION ARE FETCH LIMITED DUE TO PROXIMITY 
OF THE LAND...SO SEAS WILL NOT BE FULLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE 
DEPRESSION'S CENTER. MAIN IMPACT REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...OF UP 
TO 6 INCHES OVERALL AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA ALONG 
86W N OF 05N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY WWD 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO THE ENVIRONMENT OF 
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANY 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP 
ALONG THE WAVE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N84W TO 16N102W TO 11N125W TO 
12N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 
08N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO 
ALLOWING EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS T.D FIVE-E AND CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ. THE GENESIS OF THE ITCZ CONVECTION IS PERSISTENT S TO 
SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SW FLOW DIMINISHING TEMPORARILY OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO...ALLOWING A MODEST REDUCTION IN CONVECTION. 
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL RESURGENCE 
OF FRESH SW FLOW AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW OFF THE 
GUATEMALAN COAST. FURTHER N...THE WEAK REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS 
CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND 375 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THIS 
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
OR SO.

W OF 115W...E SHEAR EXTENDS ACROSS THE ITCZ SOUTH OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE OFF CALIFORNIA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED ALONG THE ITCZ. SWELL WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 8 
FT WILL PUSH INTO WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W IN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN