000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061521 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W...OR ABOUT 110 NM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AT 06/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ELONGATED MONSOON-TYPE TROUGH WHICH LIES OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THUS THE ACTUAL CENTER IS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED. THE SYSTEM LIES S OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS UNDER FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR YET NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA OVER THE WATERS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 97W-107W. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION...AND 4-6" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10" COULD FALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 95W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SINCE IT IS MOVING TOO CLOSE TO T.D. FIVE-E TO HAVE ITS OWN DISTINCT SIGNATURE. TROPICAL WAVE OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA ALONG 85W N OF 05N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY WWD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 15N97W TO 12N110W TO 12N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 85W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 102W-122W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N131W AND WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE RETAINING CONTROL OF THE REGION W OF 120W. FARTHER E...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 28N114W WITH A TROUGH TRAILING W TO 24N130W AND WEAKER SUBSIDENCE EXTENDING E TO 110W. THE REMNANT LOW OF DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 20N115W...OR ABOUT 350 NM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...WITH A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE CENTER. OVER MEXICO...EXTENSIVE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS COVERS THE COUNTRY EXCEPT OVER THE STATE OF CHIHUAHUA DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DRAGGING DRY AIR SWD. TROPICS... A LARGE MONSOON GYRE HAS TAKEN SHAPE E OF 120W WITH BROAD SW TO W WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ILL-DEFINED ITCZ AND NEAR T.D. FIVE-E. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO 20-35 KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVERLYING 20-25 KT SW/WESTERLIES. THE CIRCULATION OF EX-DOUGLAS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE PATTERN WITH FLOW ON ITS S SIDE FEEDING DIRECTLY INTO T.D. FIVE-E. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY W OF 120W WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 03N127W TO 19N137W AND MARKING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE. THE REMNANT LOW OF BORIS IS LOCATED NEAR 15N140W...OR ABOUT 900 NM ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...WITH A PRESSURE OF 1011 MB AND IS MOVING W 10 KT INTO THE AREA OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NM N QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WHICH MAY IN FACT BE LOSING ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION. $$ BERG