000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E AT 15.7N102.2W AT 0900 UTC OR ABOUT 
175 NM W-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING W-NW AT 08 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED 30 GUSTS TO 40 KT.  
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  CENTER CONTINUES TO BE 
ELUSIVE...POSSIBLY WIDELY ELONGATED...AND NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED
BUT REMAINS UNDER AREA OF FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT AND CARRIES DEEP 
CONVECTION.  T.D. FIVE-E EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH WITHIN NEXT 48 HR AS IT CONTINUES ON NW TRACK PARALLEL 
TO COAST OF MEXICO.  LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ON NW SIDE 
OF SYSTEM...ALONG COAST OF ACAPULCO LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS OVER MOUNTAINS WITH LANDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 02N ALONG 95W MOVING W 10-15 KT.  
MOST OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS E OF WAVE AXIS BUT WAVE IS 
MOVING CLOSER TO CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES S OF 
ACAPULCO AND UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR 
INTENSIFICATION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W TO 13N92W TO 11N109W TO 12N127W TO 
07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
E OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 26N133W FINALLY WON TUG-OF- 
WAR BATTLE WITH PREVIOUSLY INCOMING TROUGH WHICH WAS FORCED TO 
SHIFT NE AND TRACK N OF BASIN AS RIDGE EXPANDED ITS INFLUENCE N 
OF 15N W OF 117W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAIN UNDER RIDGE DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX 
NEAR 28N115W INTERRUPTS RIDGE SE EXPANSION TO NEXT ANTICYCLONIC 
GYRE AT 21N104W.  THIS GYRE PROVIDES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND 
STEADY OUTFLOW TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E NOW AT 15.7N102.2W. 
SYSTEM REMAINS WITH ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ITS NEARNESS TO 
THE COAST ON N AND NE SIDES.

WEAKENING REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS PERSIST NEAR 20N115W.  SYSTEM 
DRIFTING W OVER COOL WATERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH NEXT 
24 HR.  REMNANTS OF BORIS NEAR 16N138W STEADILY MOVING W AT 10 
KT SHOULD BE OUT OF BASIN WITHIN NEXT 24 HR...WITH LINGERING 
SWELLS EXTENDING TO 48 HR.    

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HEALTHY HIGH PRES 1024 MB CENTERED AT 38N140W PRODUCE STRONG NLY 
WIND OFFSHORE COAST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCROACH INTO NW CORNER 
OF E PAC WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HR WITH 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING 
TO 9-10 FT.

$$
WALLY BARNES