000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 99.2W AT 2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 140 NM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING NW AT 04 KT. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 25 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
DESPITE EAST SHEAR...T.D. FIVE-E IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
DEVELOP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
IT CONTINUES ON A NW TRACK...PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. A 
LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS 
SYSTEM...OFF THE COAST OF THE STATE OF GUERRERO. HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FORECAST 
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 92W FROM NEAR THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO 
BORDER SWD TO 05N...MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS RATHER 
DISORGANIZED AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE CIRCULATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SSE OF ACAPULCO. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 15N98W TO 10N110W TO 
14N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
103W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO IS PROVIDING MODERATE E SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
WATERS...NOT SO STRONG AS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT 
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E NOTED ABOVE. A QUIKSCAT PASS 
INDICATED FRESH S TO SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL WINDS SOUTH OF T.D. 
FIVE-E ADDING TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE SYSTEM. THE 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALSO AIDING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 103W. FURTHER NORTH...THE WEAKENING 
REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS PERSIST NEAR 20N114W. THIS FEATURE HAS 
BECOME STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TO A TROUGH 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS MAY STILL BE REACHING 20 KT NEAR 
THE CENTER...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRESSURE FILLS. 

W OF 115W...PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
VERY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
IS SUPPORTING WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN PLACES. THE 
REMNANTS OF BORIS CONTINUE NEAR 16N136W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF FRESH WINDS TO THE 
NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH 
PRES FURTHER NORTH. NO CONVECTION IS ACTIVE WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AROUND 10 KT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN