000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 89W N OF 03N MOVING W 15 KT 
ENTERING AREA UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR 
INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEXT 24 HR.  NO SIGNS OF 
CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN DETECTED.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 13N95W TO 13N97W TO 11N106W TO 12N120W 
TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS E OF 
88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO AXIS FROM 92W TO 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP TROUGH WHICH TRIED TO PENETRATE STUBBORN WELL-ANCHORED 
RIDGE OVER E PAC HAS GIVEN UP EFFORTS AND IS NOW FROM 32N120W TO 
25N140W.  RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 24N124W BUILDS TO 
DOMINATE FLOW ELSEWHERE N OF 15N W OF 115W WITH DRY SUBSIDING 
AIR MASS.  CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N113W DENTS RIDGE ON E SIDE.  
RIDGE EXTENDS SE PARALLEL TO COAST OF MEXICO TO SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE AT 14N87W...PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW FOR DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE NOW AT 88W.  

SWATH OF E SHEAR ACROSS ITCZ TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N HAS KEPT 
WEAK LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 13N99W FROM FULLY ORGANIZING.  WITH THE 
DEMISE OF BORIS AND DOUGLAS OVER COLDER E PAC WATERS THE BASIN 
IS CLEAR FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING.  BUT GLOBAL 
MODELS DO NOT TAKE LONG IN SPINNING A NEW LOW PRES LATER IN THE 
WEEK WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE...HINTING 
OF ITS DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS NEAR 20N114W STILL PACK 20-25 KT WINDS AND 9 
FT SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN 24 
HR.  SIMILARLY...REMNANTS OF BORIS AT 16N135W CONTINUE WITH 
20-25 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER.  BORIS 
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING W OUT OF AREA WITHIN NEXT 36 HR. 


$$
WALLY BARNES