000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W S OF 16N 
MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE LIES IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE ON THE 
W SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED 
CONVECTION OFF THE PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 
THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N84W TO 13N95W TO 11N103W TO 
13N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 07N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NW THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO...THEN W OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR 20N130W. THIS IS PROVIDING A BELT OF 
EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N THAT IS BOTH 
AIDING MODEST CONVECTION...IS ALSO STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT 
ANYTHING ORGANIZED TO FORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
SURFACE MAIN FEATURE IS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N97W. WITH 
THE EXCEPT OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOW NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN S TO SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
WINDS S OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE LOW 
PRES MOVES SLOWLY WEST. FURTHER NORTH...THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS 
CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR 20N113W WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. AN EARLIER 
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE ON THE NW SIDE 
OF THIS LOW...AND IS CONTINUES TO SHOW UP NICELY ON VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IN LIMITED AND NO REORGANIZATION 
IS LIKELY AS THE FEATURE MOVES NW. TO THE NORTH...QUIKSCAT DID 
SHOW A HINT OF FRESH NLY WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF BAJA ON THE 
EAST SIDE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE WINDS 
AND THE WINDS AROUND THE REMNANT OF DOUGLAS WILL DIMINISH OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

W OF 110W...THE WELL-DEFINED REMNANTS OF BORIS ARE CENTERED NEAR 
17N132W. WHILE THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
LOW...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED CONTINUED 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS MAINLY ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO 
BE UP TO 10 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW SHIFTS WEST 
TO 140W BY SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE  REMNANTS OF BORIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED 
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED BETWEEN THE UPPER 
RIDGE E OF 130W AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...BUT AS YET THIS 
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO ENHANCE ANY NOTABLE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN