000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W/83W S OF 
15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE LIES IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE 
ON THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH. THIS IS ALLOWING WIDESPREAD 
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OFF HONDURAS AND 
NICARAGUA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE 
PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N81W TO 11N89W TO
12N97W TO 10N103W TO 13N121W TO 10N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NW THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO...THEN W OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR 20N130W. THIS IS PROVIDING A BELT OF 
EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N THAT IS BOTH 
AIDING MODEST CONVECTION...IS ALSO STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT 
ANYTHING ORGANIZED TO FORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
SURFACE MAIN FEATURE IS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N97W. WITH 
THE EXCEPT OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOW NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN S TO SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
WINDS S OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE LOW 
PRES MOVES SLOWLY WEST. FURTHER NORTH...THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS 
CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR 20N113W WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. AN EARLIER 
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE ON THE NW SIDE 
OF THIS LOW...AND IS CONTINUES TO SHOW UP NICELY ON VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IN LIMITED AND NO REORGANIZATION 
IS LIKELY AS THE FEATURE MOVES NW. TO THE NORTH...QUIKSCAT DID 
SHOW A HINT OF FRESH NLY WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF BAJA ON THE 
EAST SIDE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE WINDS 
AND THE WINDS AROUND THE REMNANT OF DOUGLAS WILL DIMINISH OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

W OF 110W...THE WELL-DEFINED REMNANTS OF BORIS ARE CENTERED NEAR 
17N132W. WHILE THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
LOW...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED CONTINUED 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS MAINLY ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO 
BE UP TO 10 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW SHIFTS WEST 
TO 140W BY SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE  REMNANTS OF BORIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED 
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED BETWEEN THE UPPER 
RIDGE E OF 130W AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...BUT AS YET THIS 
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO ENHANCE ANY NOTABLE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN