000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041625
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 3N ACROSS THE PANAMANIAN/COSTA
RICA BORDER IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT VERY 
WELL-DEFINED BUT IS NEAR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 04N ACROSS PANAMA E OF 83W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N79W TO 12N90W TO 10N100W TO 10N110W
TO 12N120W TO 10N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N TO 8N E OF 84W...WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-116W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 125W-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N110W TO 7N114W
TO 6N118W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RATHER SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN 
CALIFORNIA SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N126W TO 28N130W WHERE
IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO 24N139W. THE TROUGH IS BEING REPLACED
BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 32N144W. A RIDGE EXTENDS E FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO JUST W OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS JUST NW OF THE AREA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SE OF LINE 30N129W
TO 27N135W TO 24N140W TO 13N. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE 
REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 
THE TROUGH AND AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N120W...AND IS WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N131W TO NE OF THE AREA AT 31N123W. THIS
MOISTURE IS SPREADING TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA. NWLY FLOW ALOFT 
COVERS NE MEXICO DUE TO A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TSTMS 
OVER MOST OF MEXICO.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICS BETWEEN COLOMBIA 
AND 105W WHERE IT BECOMES RATHER DIFFLUENT AND SUPPORTS 
CONVECTION NOTED S OF THE ITCZ AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS FLOW 
IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE CIRCULATION ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IDENTIFIED OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 
21N103W. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N113W TO 
15N115W TO 8N116W IS MOVING W 15 KT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS IS
CENTERED NEAR 17N131W 1006 MB MOVING WSW 7 KT. IT IS DEPICTED AS 
LARGE SWIRL OF MOSTLY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 
128W THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS IS CENTERED 
NEAR 20N113W 1006 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. ITS CONSISTS OF LOW AND 
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-23N 
BETWEEN 109W-115W. BOTH THESE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. A 1008 MB LOW MOVING WNW AT 5 
KT IS NEAR 12N96W. THIS LOW IS PART OF DISORGANIZED AREA OF 
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT PERSISTS TO THE S OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
SEEN WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. 
WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 125W...WHILE A WEAK 
PRES PATTERN IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION. 

$$
AGUIRRE