000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUL 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 130.4W...OR 1210 NM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 04/0300 UTC MOVING WSW AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BORIS HAS NOW LOST ALL ITS DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND INTO THE STABLE AIR MASS TO ITS W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 111.2W...OR 135 NM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 04/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DOUGLAS HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND. WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS WRITTEN THE LAST ADVISORY ON DOUGLAS. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N95W...OR ABOUT 250 NM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVER THE PAST 12 HRS OR SO...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT NEVER WAS VERY WELL-DEFINED AND HAS BEEN REFORMING. DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER SPARSE...WITH ONE BAND DISPLACED ABOUT 150 NM NE OF THE CENTER AND ANOTHER AREA WELL S NEAR A CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG 07N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 91W-96W. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NW OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W N OF 02N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT VERY WELL-DEFINED BUT IS NEAR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 04N ACROSS PANAMA E OF 83W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N77W TO 06N82W TO 11N95W TO 09N103W TO 15N121W TO 07N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 03N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 94W-109W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIE W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 30N132W TO 22N140W. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SENDING SEVERAL WAVES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO THE NW PART OF THE REGION BUT THEY HAVE BEEN QUICKLY WASHING OUT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH. ONE FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 26N140W WHILE A SECOND LIES JUST NW OF THE AREA AND SHOULD CROSS 30N140W OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SECOND BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM T.D. BORIS NWD INTO A THIN RIBBON OF CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM 20N130W N THEN NE TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TO THE E...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N119W AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 124W TO THE COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS NE MEXICO DUE TO A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TSTMS OVER MOST OF MEXICO. TROPICS... DEEP EASTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 105W AND IS COINCIDENT WITH FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. FARTHER W...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED SW OF T.D. DOUGLAS NEAR 14N115W AND THIS IS CAUSING THE FLOW TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARDS SOCORRO ISLAND WHILE AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SWD TO 04N118W. THIS LINE MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY SE TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA W OF 125W DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND A DYING TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N138W TO 08N144W. THE ITCZ IS BEGINNING TO RECONSTITUTE ITSELF NOW THAT T.D. BORIS AND DOUGLAS ARE MOVING FARTHER N AND W OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS. $$ BERG