000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031615 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1300 MILES...2090 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 03/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BORIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INDICATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL BEING DISLOCATED FROM THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN BEING ENTRAINED IN THE WRN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 19N129W. BORIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNDER A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT 03/1500 UTC...AND WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1N...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST OR ABOUT 195 NM...315 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS CYCLONE IS EXHIBITING A HIGHLY SHEARED PATTERN AS IT CONTINUES IN A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. WITH ITS CIRCULATION SEEN AS A SWIRL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 19N114W. DOUGLAS WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N94W...OR ABOUT 340 NM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE LOW HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND IN ORGANIZATION OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE JUST INLAND THE COLOMBIA COAST MOVING W 15 KT WILL MOVE TO NEAR 79W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 9N78W TO 11N90W TO 12N100W TO 8N110W TO 12N122W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W-112W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 130W... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 25N140W. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N134W SW TO 28N137W. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA SE OF TROUGH TO 20N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS BEING PULLED N AND NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO NE OF THE AREA JUST E OF 130W OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THIS AREA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 16N W OF 137W. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW MODERATE ELY WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 12N. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N132W. WEAK HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 22N. E OF 130W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 20N130W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE TO OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 23N117W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE S OF THIS ANTICYCLONE...AND ARE SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WWD TO W OF 130W. OTHER RELATED MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED SSE FROM DOUGLAS TOWARDS THE EQUATOR AS THE WIND FLOW REGIME OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 10N101W DRIVES THIS MOISTURE IN THAT DIRECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTED PRIMARILY TO THE S OF 13N. A WEAK PRES PATTERN IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. $$ AGUIRRE