000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021636 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1210 NM...1945 
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 
02/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BOTH INFRARED 
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE EYE FEATURE 
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. BUT JUST RECENTLY RECEIVED 
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE COLD TOP CONVECTION IN THE S AND W 
QUADRANTS HAS WARMED INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE ALREADY 
ENTERING A WEAKENING PHASE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN W SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM IN 
THE E SEMICIRCLE. BORIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM 
IN 48 HOURS...AND INTO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS UPGRADES TO TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS
AT 02/1500 UTC...AND WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8N...LONGITUDE
107.8 WEST OR ABOUT 245 NM...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF  
MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
CENTER IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN TWO DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES
CONSISTING OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SW AND 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN E QUADRANTS. IT 
APPEARS THAT THESE BANDS ARE TRYING TO COIL AROUND THE CENTER 
WITH TIME. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTH THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WHILE UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 92W N OF 5N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO. A 
WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE WAVE NEAR 9N92W. A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE 
LOW MAY ACTUALLY BE ELONGATED JUST TO THE N OF THE ITCZ AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST TO THE NW OF
THE WAVE AND LOW FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW
IN THE E SEMICIRCLE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 9N85W TO 8N92W TO 12N100W TO
11N110W TO 12N121W TO 9N132W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 
79W-82W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
100W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W-129W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 131W-137W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 130W...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 26N140W. ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N132W SW TO OUT OF THE 
AREA AT 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER SUPPORT DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE AREA S OF TROUGH TO 20N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH HURRICANE BORIS IS SLOWLY SPREADING WNW TO THE SE OF A LINE
FROM 25N130W TO 12N136W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ALONG 16N W OF 13W. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW MODERATE ELY 
WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 12N.

E OF 130W...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N119W WITH A 
RIDGE SW TO 20N130W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE
NNE TO OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED
NNW OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS NEAR 21N109W. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS
CAUSING MODERATE ELY ACROSS DOUGLAS...AND THESE WINDS ARE 
SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WWD TOWARDS 122W. OTHER RELATED 
MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED SSE FROM DOUGLAS TOWARDS THE 
EQUATOR. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTED 
PRIMARILY TO THE S OF 13N. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK LOW NEAR 
9N92W MENTIONED ABOVE MAY INTENSIFY SOME AS IT TRACKS IN A 
GENERAL NW TRACK IN THE WAKE OF DOUGLAS.

$$
AGUIRRE