000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N125.3W AT 01/2100 UTC 
OR 1000 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W 
AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. THE LATEST 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BORIS IS WEAKENING AND 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE REASON 
FOR THE DOWNWARD TREND ARE THE COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  
 
A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N106W AND MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 
KT. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 14N TO 
18N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. THE CIRCULATION COVERS A LARGE AREA 
FROM ABOUT 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. 

TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 87W N OF 6N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FEATURE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N78W TO 08N90W TO 12N105W TO 
11N115W TO 12N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 06N E OF 84W...WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A 14N95W TO 07N95W LINE...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A 13N104W TO 09N103W LINE...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 
108W AND 114W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 137W N OF 25N 
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED N OF 25N W OF 128W. AN ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N135W TO BEYOND 28N140W. SW 
WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE LOCATED N OF 28N E OF THE 
FRONT TO 134W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE REMNANTS OF CRISTINA ARE 
LOCATED NEAR 14N136W WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY A 
SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A DEVELOPING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N115W...MOVING NW ABOUT 
10 KT.

E OF 110W...
OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT 
COVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF 110W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT 
WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KT.

$$
CAB