000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 124.2W...OR ABOUT 950 NM...1765 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 01/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT...MAKING BORIS THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008 SEASON IN THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE FEATURE OF BORIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. IN ADDITION MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN AN EYEWALL WITH A BREAK TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AND 120 NM S OF THE CENTER. OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST MAINTAINS BORIS AS A HURRICANE FOR 12 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N106W MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING IN THE NE QUADRANT. VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -85C WERE NOTED WITHIN THIS BAND. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER APPEARS TO BE REFORMING FURTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR 16N106W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS PERSISTENT AS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AN ARC THROUGH 18N106W 17N104W 15N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM OF THE BROAD CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE DEFINITIVE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14N134W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. CHRISTINA CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM N OF 60 NM S OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY 48 HOURS AS IT TRAVERSES WESTWARD. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 11N100W TO 12N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W..AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W. NUMEROUS STRONG N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 130W... THIS AREA IS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE N OF HURRICANE BORIS NEAR 25N120W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO SRN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. A CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N WITH SOME OF THIS SUBSIDENCE FILTERING INTO THE N SEMICIRCLE OF BORIS. A SHEARED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING NE IS NEAR 21N105W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC S OF ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 88W-110W. ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE EXISTS TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE. A MID/UPPER LAYERED TROUGH IS W OF THE AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. W OF 130W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE AREA NEAR 19N148W WITH A RIDGE NE TO ABOUT 23N135W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 128W WHERE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE AREA THROUGH 32N137W AND TO SW OF THE AREA AT 27N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE NOTED IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA TO BE CONFINED TO THE S OF 9N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ITS ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9 FT IN A NW SWELL WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE NW WATERS ON WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THOSE WATERS. $$ COBB