000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 123.0W...OR ABOUT 
1030 NM...1660 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. AT 01/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THAT BORIS IS QUICKLY BECOMING 
STRONGER AS NOTED BY ITS NOW CLEARLY EVIDENT EYE FEATURE...AND 
VERY PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES WITH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN 
LOOKING VERY SYMMETRICAL. THE CYCLONE MAY POSSIBLY ACHIEVE 
HURRICANE STATUS SHORTLY...BUT NOT LAST TOO LONG AT THAT 
INTENSITY BEFORE WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N123W TO 
13N121W. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS THE CYCLONE 
GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU AFTERNOON 
IN A FEW DAYS.

DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N
132.2W...OR ABOUT 1460 NM...2640 KM...WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS 
MEXICO...AT 01/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
CHRISTINA HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE 
AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AS IT 
MOVES DEEPER INTO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE DEPRESSION IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN 
DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT.

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N98W MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT. 
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AS NO BANDING TYPE 
FEATURES HAVE FORMED...AND THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CLOUD 
SYSTEM CENTER AT THE PRESENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS PERSISTENT AS SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N107W TO 
17N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W. THIS SYSTEM DOES 
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL 
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE DEFINITIVE LOW PRES SYSTEM 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION 
PER MODEL GUIDANCE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W TO 6N90W TO 10N100W TO 10N114W
TO 10N122W TO 8N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 82W-88W...AND 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-109W...AND
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-135W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

E OF 130W...
THIS AREA IS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE N OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS NEAR
25N123W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO SRN 
CALIFORNIA. A CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION
OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 
20N. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES
AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING
NE IS NEAR 19N105W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC S OF 
ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 88W-110W. ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE 
EXISTS TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE. A MID/UPPER LAYERED TROUGH IS W 
OF THE AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

W OF 130W...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE AREA NEAR 12N148W WITH A 
RIDGE NE TO ABOUT 22N134W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING A 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXCEPT N OF 
26N W OF 128W WHERE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE AREA 
THROUGH 32N137W AND TO SW OF THE AREA AT 27N140W. UPPER LEVEL 
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRISTINA MOVING WWD 
TO THE S OF 15N. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE 
NOTED IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA TO BE CONFINED TO THE S OF 
9N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NRN PORTION OF 
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ITS ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT IS PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SLY FLOW 
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP 
TO 9 FT IN A NW SWELL WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE 
FRONT THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE NW WATERS ON THU AS HIGH PRES 
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THOSE WATERS.

$$
AGUIRRE