000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302221 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 122.1W...OR ABOUT 980 NM...1575 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT 30/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRICAL WITH THE CENTER BECOMING MORE DEFINED AS A SMALL CDO CORE STRUCTURE WITH THE COLDEST OF THE CONVECTION CLOUD TOPS CONFINED TO ITS SE AN SW QUADRANTS. THIS CONVECTION CONSISTS OF THE NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SE QUADRANT...AND SCATTERED STRONG TYPE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER ALSO IN THE SE QUADRANT... AND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE DEPICTING BANDING FEATURES COILING TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER WITH CDO TYPE FEATURE MENTIONED. THE CYCLONE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A WINDOW OF 12-24 HOURS IN WHICH TO ACHIEVE HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AGAIN. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU AFTERNOON. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 132.2W...OR ABOUT 1585 NM...2550 KM...WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 30/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CHRISTINA HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N98W MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AS NO BANDING TYPE FEATURES HAVE FORMED...AND THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER AT THE PRESENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS PERSISTENT AS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N107W TO 17N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE DEFINITIVE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION PER MODEL GUIDACNE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W TO 6N90W TO 10N100W TO 10N114W TO 10N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 78W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-113W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-120W...AND BETWEEN 122W-128W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-131W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134W-138W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 130W... THIS AREA IS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE N OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS NEAR 25N123W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO SRN CALIFORNIA. A CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING NE IS NEAR 19N105W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC S OF ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 88W-110W. ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE EXISTS TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE. A MID/UPPER LAYERED TROUGH IS W OF THE AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. W OF 130W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE AREA NEAR 12N148W WITH A RIDGE NE TO ABOUT 22N134W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 128W WHERE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE AREA THROUGH 32N137W AND TO SW OF THE AREA AT 27N140W. UPPER LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRISTINA MOVING WWD TO THE S OF 15N. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE NOTED IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA TO BE CONFINED TO THE S OF 9N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ITS ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9 FT IN A NW SWELL WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE NW WATERS ON THU AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THOSE WATERS. $$ AGUIRRE