000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300923 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 119.4W...OR ABOUT 720 NM...1335 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT 30/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CDO CORE STRUCTURE WITH BANDING FEATURES RESTRICTED TO THE S SEMICRIRCLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED TO THE N OF A BURST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP CONVECTION. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATED THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT OF ENE SHEAR ON THE S SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH...BUT IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNSTABLE MOISTURE-LADEN ENVIRONMENT. BORIS MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING ENSUES IN THE REMAINDER OF NEXT FEW DAYS AS BORIS APPROACHES SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N118W TO 11N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. TROPICAL STORM CHRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 129.9W...OR ABOUT 1250 NM...2315 KM...WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 30/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATED CRISTINA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT ELY SHEAR WHICH HAS RE-EXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A MARKED DECREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 60-90 NM W OF THE CENTER. CRISTINA IS BEGUN TO RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND HAS LESS ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM THE SHEAR. CRISTINA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N98W MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT. POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS ALTHOUGH THE AREA OVER AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N99W TO 13N103W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 107W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 12N96W TO 09N105W TO 13N115W TO 09N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF AND EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 90W AND BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 130W... THIS AREA IS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE N OF BOTH TROPICAL STORM BORIS AND CHRISTINA NEAR 23N121W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 38N130W LOW SE TO OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER CONFLUENT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES DIFFLUENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA...E TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW UNITED STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC S OF ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 108W AND 130W. ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE EXISTS TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE WHERE STRONG NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED. THESE WINDS ARE CREATING NE SHEAR ABOVE BOTH TROPICAL STORMS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW SECTOR OF THE AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. W OF 130W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE AREA NEAR 12N147W AND EXTENDS NE TO A COL NEAR 15N138W WITH A RIDGE NE OF THE AREA THROUGH 20N130W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 128W WHERE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS PUSHED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW RELATED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM CHRISTINA IS SPREADING INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE S OF 20N AND E OF 132W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE NOTED IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA TO BE CONFINED TO THE S OF 9N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT PROBABLY ENTERING THE FAR NW WATERS MON MORNING. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9 FT IN A NW SWELL OVER THE PORTION N OF 28N W OF 137W BY TUE AFTERNOON. $$ COBB