000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292353 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2353 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...UPDATED

TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 117.8W...OR ABOUT 
760 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 30/0000 UTC MOVING W AT  
8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS ONLY 
CHANGED LITTLE WITH A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN 
AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER APPEARS TO 
BE LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP CONVECTION. THE 
SYSTEM IS WITHSTANDING ABOUT 20 KT OF ENE SHEAR ON THE S SIDE OF 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH...BUT IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
UNSTABLE MOISTURE-LADEN ENVIRONMENT. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS BORIS APPROACHES SLIGHTLY 
COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST HAS BORIS BECOMING A DEPRESSION IN 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 
12N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN 
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 119W.

TROPICAL STORM CHRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 128.4W...OR ABOUT
1345 WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 29/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 
8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EARLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IS
NOW TUCKED BACK UNDERNEATH VERY DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTING
OF NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S AND SW OF THE CENTER AND
SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM ON THE NW QUADRANT. CRISTINA IS 
BEGUN TO RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND HAS LESS ABILITY TO 
RECOVER FROM THE SHEAR. CRISTINA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO 
A REMNANT LOW LATE MON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W N OF 09N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB 
LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 09N100W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 
24 HRS ALTHOUGH THE AREA OVER AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM REMAINS 
RATHER DISORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 10N98W TO 12N97W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 12N93W TO 14N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM 
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W TO 8N90W 10N100W TO 10N115W 
TO 8N125W TO 6N132W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 100W-107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 131W-135W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 83W-90W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 136W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 
128W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 130W...
THIS AREA IS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NE OF TROPICAL STORM CHRISTINA
NEAR 25N119W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS WELL N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 25N130W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ESE TO OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER
CONFLUENT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF
20N. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES DIFFLUENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE
AREA...E TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC S OF ABOUT 25N BETWEEN
108W AND 130W. ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE EXISTS TO THE SE 
OF THE RIDGE WHERE STRONG NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN 
THE 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED. THESE WINDS ARE CREATING NE SHEAR 
ABOVE TROPICAL STORM BORIS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE NW SECTOR OF THE AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE 
NW PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.

W OF 130W...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 15N138W WITH A RIDGE NE OF
THE AREA THROUGH 20N130W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING A STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXCEPT N OF 26N
W OF 128W WHERE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW RELATED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM 
CHRISTINA IS SPREADING INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA TO
THE S OF 20N AND E OF 132W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY 
WINDS ARE NOTED IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA TO BE CONFINED TO 
THE S OF 9N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT PROBABLY ENTERING THE FAR
NW WATERS MON MORNING. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9 FT IN A NW SWELL OVER THE 
PORTION N OF 28N W OF 137W BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE