000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 113.0W...OR ABOUT 540 NM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 28/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 0526 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE PASS FIRST INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BORIS WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. A 1016 UTC TRMM PASS GAVE FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT BORIS WAS SUCCUMBING TO THE EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20 KT SHEAR...AS INDICATED BY 12 UTC CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES. A CLOSER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF THE NEAREST...COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...REMOVED FROM STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING EVIDENT TO THE SSW. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. RECENT IMAGES INDICATE A STRONG BURSTING PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO -80C. TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 124.4W...OR ABOUT 970 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 28/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E HAS SLOWLY BEEN ORGANIZING THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND BECOMING MUCH MORE PROMINENT DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA. CRISTINA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE CENTER TO LIE PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SE SIDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. A STABLE AIR MASS...NOTED BY THE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK NW OF THE STORM...SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY PUT A CAP ON MUCH FEATURE INTENSIFICATION. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES. FINALLY ...A MORNING JASON PASS SHOWED SEAS OF UP TO 15 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W S OF 20N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE BASE OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N94W...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW A BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING DOMINATING THE AREA E OF 100W. SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING PRIMARILY S OF THE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A FAINT HINT OF BANDING. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH AT PRESENT IT REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE...JUST NW OF VERA CRUZ WITHIN THE REMAINS OF CONVECTION WHICH PROPAGATED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 500 NM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOSTLY FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N78W TO 07N90W TO 07N100W TO 14N113W TO 14N124W TO 08N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A 1220 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT OVER A NARROW AREA WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 11N FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 89W. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO GROUND TRUTH...NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS MAY BE AS HIGH 8 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM. THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT LOOKS TO BE NEARING AN END...WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING THE WINDS DECREASING BELOW 20 KT BY MIDDAY SUN. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN INTO MON. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN ENHANCED NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS BORIS AND CRISTINA HAVE CAUSED NE TRADES TO STRENGTHEN FROM 10N TO 20N AND W OF CRISTINA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO 8 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. FINALLY...A LARGE CUT OFF LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE...MODELS SHOW NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 28N. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT IN N TO NW WIND WAVES BY MON. $$ KIMBERLAIN