000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280342 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 110.8W...OR ABOUT 665 NM S OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MANZANILLO MEXICO...OR ABOUT 645 NM S OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 28/0000 UTC. IT IS MOVING NW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS EVIDENT ON IT IMAGERY OVER THE CENTER...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE AND SE QUADRANTS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD OUTFLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BORIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 123.5W ...OR ABOUT 1075 NM WSW OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 27/1800 UTC. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WNW AT 8 KT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE W EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN OVERALL STRUCTURE AND BANDING FEATURES OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM IN THE E QUADRANT. THE THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND HOLD THIS STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ...UNTIL WHICH TIME IT WILL THEN RUN INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT 250 NM TO ITS NW. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W N OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE INTERIOR OF SE MEXICO AND NRN GUATEMALA. LATEST RUNS OF THE NWP GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS THAT THIS WAVE MAY DEVELOP OVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS WNW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W TO 7N90W TO 7N100W TO 10N109W TO 9N115W TO 11N120W 8N130W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-132W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 130W... A SOMEWHAT OF A REX BLOCK CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 32N128W MOVING W 15 KT. IN ADDITION ...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WELL N OF THE REGION HAS MOVED E OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE BLOCK HAS CAUSED A MID/UPPER TROUGH TO PERSIST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM THE LOW SE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO CONFLUENT IN BEHIND THE TROUGH IS SEEN NW OF A LINE FROM 16N130W TO 20N120W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE N OF BORIS IS NEAR 17N110W WITH A RIDGE NNE TO ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE IN COMBINATION TO THAT SE OF THE TROUGH IS CHANNELING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN ANTICYCLONIC FASHION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BETWEEN 98W-130W. W OF 130W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N140W WITH A RIDGE N TO 19N138W TO 23N137W WHERE IT BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE NE TO 31N135W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXCEPT FOR N OF 20N AND W OF 137W WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURES IS STREAMING EWD INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW RELATED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS SLOWLY SPREADING INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE S OF 14N AND E OF 133W.. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE NOTED IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA TO BE CONFINED TO THE S OF 13N. $$ AGUIRRE