000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272231 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 109.5W...OR ABOUT 
665 NM S OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MANZANILLO MEXICO...OR
ABOUT 535 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 27/1800 UTC. IT IS 
MOVING NW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION...IN 
LARGE CLUSTERS...CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER AND 
AROUND THE CENTER WITH PRETTY GOOD OUTFLOW NOTED OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG IS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER OVER SW SEMICIRCLE..AND WITHIN 90 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N107W 12N107W DENOTES AN OUTER RAIN 
BAND. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 109W-111W. 
BORIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 36 
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES.

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 123.0W
...OR ABOUT 1075 NM SW OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 
27/1800 UTC. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 
WNW AT 8 KT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE W EXPECTED DURING 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS NOTED IN THE TIGHT BANDING FEATURES 
AROUND THE THE SMALL CENTER IN THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE 
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL 
STORM LATE TONIGHT AND HOLD THIS STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
...UNTIL WHICH TIME IT WILL THEN RUN INTO A MORE STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ABOUT 250 NM TO ITS NW.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LATEST 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD MOTION ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N 
BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE INTERIOR OF SE MEXICO AND 
NRN GUATEMALA. LATEST RUNS OF THE NWP GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS THAT 
THIS WAVE MAY DEVELOP OVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS 
WNW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W TO 7N90W TO 7N100W TO 10N109W 
TO 9N115W TO 11N120W 8N130W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 125W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 130W...
A REX BLOCK CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST 
WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 32N128W MOVING W 15 KT. IN ADDITION
...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WELL N OF THE REGION HAS MOVED E
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE BLOCK HAS CAUSED A MID/UPPER TROUGH TO 
PERSIST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM THE LOW SE TO CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THE REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER 
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO CONFLUENT IN 
BEHIND THE TROUGH IS SEEN NW OF A LINE FROM 16N130W TO 20N120W
TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE N OF
BORIS IS NEAR 17N110W WITH A RIDGE NNE TO ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THE 
FLOW AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE IN COMBINATION TO THAT SE OF THE 
TROUGH IS CHANNELING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN 
ANTICYCLONIC FASHION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BETWEEN 98W-130W.

W OF 130W...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N139W WITH A RIDGE N TO 
19N138W TO 23N137W WHERE IT BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE NE TO 31N135W. 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER 
MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXCEPT FOR N OF 20N AND W OF 137W WHERE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURES IS STREAMING EWD INTO THE AREA. UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW RELATED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS 
SLOWLY SPREADING INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE S OF 
14N AND E OF 133W.. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE
NOTED IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA TO BE CONFINED TO THE 
S OF 13N.

$$
AGUIRRE