000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BORIS NEAR 12.6N 109.3W...OR ABOUT 555 NM SW OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 27/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES OF T.S. BORIS.

1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N122W...OR ABOUT 900 NM SW OF CABO 
SAN LUCAS MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE LOW HAS A 
WELL-DEFINED SMALL CIRCULATION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED WITHIN 180 NM ESE OF THE CENTER. 
THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO RUN INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT 250 NM TO ITS NW...BUT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS N OF 10N ALONG 89W TO EL SALVADOR MOVING W 
10-15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE N PORTION 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 6N95W 9N110W 11N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 124W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 12N139W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 30N139W.
A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N127W WITH A BROAD 
TROUGH TO 20N122W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT 
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. A 45-55 KT SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 24N140W
24N140W TO NW MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND ACROSS NORTHERN 
MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS PROVIDING OUTFLOW FOR T.S. BORIS. UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 115W.

$$
DGS