000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270918 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12.0N 108.8W...OR ABOUT 495 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 27/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A PROMINENT BAND CURVING AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE SE AROUND TO THE NW. IN ADDITION...THE RATHER LINEAR AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH WAS LOCATED NE OF THE CENTER IS NOW BEGINNING TO CURVE AND EXTEND AROUND THE ENTIRE NE SEMICIRCLE AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES MORE WELL-DEFINED. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 104W-115W. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N121W...OR ABOUT 900 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED BUT RATHER SMALL CIRCULATION...AND THE PROLIFIC DEEP CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED. A FEW SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO RUN INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...HIGHLIGHTED BY A NEARLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ABOUT 250 NM TO ITS NW...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HONDURAS ALONG 88W N OF 06N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FARTHER N ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT THERE ARE A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS NEAR THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA AS WELL AS NEAR THE ITCZ. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MAY BE DEVELOPING NEAR 09N89W AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL TRACK WNW WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 88W-92W. TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 131W HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE POSITION HAS BEEN UNCERTAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW DUE TO NO OBVIOUS SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 10N86W TO 08N95W TO 12N108W TO 12N121W TO 07N130W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-10N E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W-127W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A REX BLOCK IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 32N125W AND AN UPPER HIGH FARTHER N NEAR 41N129W...WHICH IS SQUEEZING PAST THE LOW TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. THE BLOCK HAS CAUSED A MID/UPPER TROUGH TO PERSIST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM THE LOW TO 20N122W WHILE A 50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM HAWAII TO NW MEXICO. THE HIGH WITHIN THE REX BLOCK WILL MOVE E TO THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AND WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW AND THE JET TO LIFT NW. FOR NOW...THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 115W WHILE PULLING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED BETWEEN SOCORRO ISLAND AND THE MEXICAN RIVIERA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N INTO W TEXAS. AS A RESULT...A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD COVERS THE PACIFIC WATERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS PERSIST OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS AND THE MEXICAN PLATEAU LATE INTO THE NIGHT. TROPICS... A CONTINUOUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 14N142W TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ANOTHER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS SUCH...NE TO E FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE E PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS AND ALSO SHOWS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW TO THE SW OF T.D. TWO-E AND THE LOW NEAR 12N121W. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS ALSO FOCUSED NEAR THESE TWO SYSTEMS BUT ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W...ITS ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING LOW PRES...AND THE ITCZ. $$ BERG