000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N108W AND IS MOVING WNW 
ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE S QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NM OVER 
THE NE QUADRANT WITH BANDING FEATURES S OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW 
PRES MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N120W AND IS MOVING WNW 
ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER OVER NE SEMICIRCLE AND ALSO 
WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT. INTERMITTENT BANDING 
FEATURES ARE NOTED AND THIS LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING 
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 04N ALONG 87W AND HAS MOVED W AT 17 KT 
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS OVER NICARAGUA WHERE TSTMS ARE ENHANCED. A CLUSTER OF 
TSTMS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE NEAR 10N86W BUT SEEMS TO BE 
DIMINISHING AT THE MOMENT. 
  
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 03N TO 14N ALONG 130W AND IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 10 KT. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS BUT CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED E OF 
THE WAVE POSITION NEAR 9N129W. 

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 
07N94W TO 12N105W TO 09N112W TO 12N120W TO 10N140W. EXCEPT AS 
NOTED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 15N103W TO 
08N111W TO 13N118W TO 07N130W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND TWO 
SHORTWAVE RIDGES. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH AXIS IS N OF 16N ALONG 
124W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR 33N123W AND 
LIFTING OUT SLOWLY NE. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH CONTINUES QUASI 
STATIONARY TO THE N OF 17N ALONG 95W WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AT 26N94W. A TROPICAL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N137W WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 31N139W. UPPER MOISTURE IS IS 
STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA UNDER THIS RIDGE...ROUGHLY 
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 25N147W TO 25N132W...BUT THE 
PLUME APPEARS TO BE EVAPORATING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 18N110W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO WELL 
BEYOND 32N108W. THIS RIDGE SEPARATES THE TWO TROUGHS MENTIONED 
ABOVE. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS UNDER THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OLD 
MEXICO TO THE N OF 26N.

CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED BETWEEN 100W AND 
130W...BUT THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SEEMS TO REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE NOW SPREADING S ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR AT 120W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PAC E 
OF 91W AND CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...BECOMES CAUGHT UP 
IN THE UPPER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 95W...AND 
IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS 
MOST OF FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY WITHIN 360 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 32N121W TO 12N136W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N137W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 
27N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND NE WINDS CONTINUE 
SW OF THE RIDGE TO 24N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH FRI.

GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS 20 KT...SEAS TO 7 FT...CONTINUE IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM TO THE W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO ALONG 90W. LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON