000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 11N107W AND IS MOVING WNW 
ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER MAINLY OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE WITH 
ABOUT 3 TENTHS OF BANDING. THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED AND MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N119W AND IS MOVING WNW 
ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER OVER ITS NW QUADRANT AND ALSO 
WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE WHERE 3 TENTHS BANDING IS 
MEASURED. THIS LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND 
MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 04N ALONG 86W AND HAS MOVED W AT 17 KT 
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN COSTA RICA BORDER WITH TSTMS ENHANCED 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEAS AND OVER NICARAGUA. A LARGE AREA OF 
SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE PAC WITHIN 150 
NM OF 05N84W. 
  
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 03N TO 14N ALONG 129W AND IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 10 KT. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE BUT A CLUSTER SEEMS TO ENHANCED NEAR 
08N127W.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 
07N90W TO 12N107W TO 12N119W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A WAVE WITHIN 150 NM OF 05N84W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITHIN ABOUT 
150 NM OF LINE 16N100W TO 10N108W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE LINE 07N111W TO 08N118W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
LINE 11N118W TO 08N128W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND TWO 
SHORTWAVE RIDGES. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH AXIS IS N OF 16N ALONG 
124W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR 32N120W AND 
LIFTING OUT SLOWLY NE. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH CONTINUE QUASI 
STATIONARY TO THE N OF 17N ALONG 95W. A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 14N137W WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A 
CREST AT 31N138W. UPPER MOISTURE IS IS STREAMING EASTWARD INTO 
THE AREA UNDER THIS RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 25N147W TO 24N128W WHERE THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO EVAPORATE. 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 17N110W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 
WELL BEYOND 32N108W. THIS RIDGE SEPARATES THE TWO TROUGHS 
MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS MOVING N UNDER THE 
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO N OF 26N.

CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED BETWEEN 99W AND 127W...BUT 
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SEEMS TO REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W 
OF 97W. HOWEVER...THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION 
E OF 90W AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE 
UPPER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 95W...AND IS 
SPREADING NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS MOST 
OF FLORIDA...AND CONTINUES IN A NARROW PLUME NE ACROSS THE 
SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 12N W 
OF 108W.     

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 35N136W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 20N113W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 
26N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND NE WINDS CONTINUE 
SW OF THE RIDGE TO 20N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FRI.

GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS 20 KT...SEAS TO 7 FT...CONTINUE IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM TO THE W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO ALONG 90W. LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON