000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N104W...OR ABOUT 445 NM SSW OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW 15 KT. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND 
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY 
MORE ORGANIZED WITH ONE MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE 
DEVELOPING W/NW OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE PAST 5 HRS. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS ANALYZED WITH THE LOW HAS BEEN REMOVED 
NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. A CLUSTER OF 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 
10N-13N BETWEEN 104W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS 
ELSEWHERE FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 99W-110W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W/83W N OF 04N MOVING W 15 KT. THE MAIN 
PART OF THE WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A 
LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO JUST OFF THE 
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. HOWEVER...ONE 
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE ITCZ S OF PANAMA IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS IS A VERY 
WEAK WAVE WITH NO OBVIOUS CIRCULATION...AND IT IS BEING 
OVERSHADOWED BY A MUCH LARGER SURFACE TROUGH FARTHER E ALONG 
118W. ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 06N77W TO 11N104W TO 09N114W TO 
12N120W TO 07N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W-122W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 
05N-09N W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STRETCHES ACROSS THE 
SUBTROPICAL WATERS INTO MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOST 
OF THE DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL 
PART OF THE AREA...CONTINUING NE ACROSS SE MEXICO INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN.

SUBTROPICS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED BETWEEN PUERTO 
VALLARTA MEXICO AND SOCORRO ISLAND NEAR 19N108W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS MEXICO TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. 
WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE 
YET THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TSTMS TO 
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS. MOST OF THE DIURNAL 
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OFF BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS 
OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS NEAR 
GUADALAJARA. FARTHER W...A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 
30N125W TO 18N122W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM 
OF THE AXIS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET CROSSES E OF 22N140W TOWARDS 
THE TROUGH WITH MAXIMUM SPEEDS OF ONLY 35 KT...AND ADVECTING 
ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

TROPICS...
WITH UPPER HIGHS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND JUST E OF 
SOCORRO ISLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY EASTERLY FROM 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 120W. THERE ARE TWO WEAK UPPER TROUGH NOTED 
FROM 15N94W TO 02N108W AND FROM 14N120W TO 02N124W...AND BOTH 
ARE SERVING AS BOUNDS TO THE AREA OF MOST ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE. W OF THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES 
ALONG 14N AND THE FLOW S OF THE AXIS IS MAINLY N TO 
NE...TRANSITIONING TO EASTERLY NEAR 140W.

$$
BERG