000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 04N ALONG 81W AND HAS MOVED W AT 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS OVER THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BORDER. ONLY SHOWERS 
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THE MOMENT AS THE TSTMS ENHANCED EARLIER 
HAVE DISSIPATED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED N OF 04N ALONG 102W AND HAS MOVED W 
AT ONLY 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION 
HAS CONTINUED FOR MOST OF WED...AND A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 10.5N102.5W. A LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OBSERVED 
EARLIER WITHIN 180 NM OF 11N103W HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY 
SINCE SUNSET...HOWEVER BANDING TYPE FEATURES WERE NOTED AT 
SUNSET. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL TRACK JUST N OF 
DUE W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
  
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 03N TO 14N ALONG 125.5W ON THE 
LAST VISIBLE IMAGES WED AFTERNOON. THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 12 KT. ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG ITS AXIS AT 07N WHERE A 
CLUSTER OF TSTMS WERE ENHANCED EARLIER BUT ARE DECAYING AT THE 
MOMENT.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 
11N102W TO 09N121W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
FROM 16N95W TO 10N104W TO 15N115W TO 11N117W TO 06N127W AND ALSO 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N131W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND TWO 
SHORTWAVE RIDGES. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH AXIS IS N OF 18N ALONG 
122W AND IS NOW BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME.  
THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE N OF 18N 
ALONG 95W. AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N138W WITH 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NNE AND CRESTING ALONG POINTS 31N140W 
TO 31N129W TO 27N125W. UPPER MOISTURE IS IS STREAMING EASTWARD 
INTO THE AREA UNDER THIS RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 25N145W TO 24N127W WHERE THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
EVAPORATE. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 18N108W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO WELL BEYOND 32N105W. THIS RIDGE SEPARATES THE TWO 
TROUGHS MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO ENHANCES CONVECTION OVER NW OLD 
MEXICO ALONG A LINE 31N111W TO 24N104W. THIS CONVECTION IS 
SUPPLEMENTING A MOISTURE PLUME MOVING N UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH 
THE COMBINED PLUME EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
CONUS DESERT SW WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE ALSO SPILLING E ACROSS 
THE RIDGE OVER W TEXAS. 

CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED BETWEEN 92W AND 127W...BUT 
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SEEMS TO REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W 
OF 95W. HOWEVER...THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION 
E OF 95W BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 95W...AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE EASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA...AND CONTINUES IN A 
NARROW PLUME NE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OTHERWISE THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 12N W OF 102W.     

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 35N138W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 18N109W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 
28N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND NE WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED TODAY TO 15 TO 20 KT SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS N 
OF 20N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY 
THEN DIMINISH FRI WITH THE N SWELLS CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE 
DIMINISHED...BUT AN AREA OF E WINDS CONTINUES FROM 11N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 102W WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED. 
THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT W AS THE WAVE MOVES W OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. NE TO E WINDS 20 KT...SEAS TO 9 FT...CONTINUE IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM TO THE W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO ALONG 90W. LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

$$
NELSON