000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 05N ALONG 89W AND HAS MOVED W AT 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS AT 09N AND TSTMS ARE ENHANCED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 04N ALONG 101W AND HAS MOVED W AT ONLY 
10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED 
ALONG THE WAVE AT AXIS NEAR 09N. A LARGE AREA OF TSTMS ARE NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM OF 12N102W...AND DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ PARAGRAPH 
BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 14N ALONG 126W AND IS 
MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG ITS AXIS AT 07N 
WHERE A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS ALSO ENHANCED.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 
11N101W TO 09N121W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
11.5N102.5W TO 12N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE ALONG 
07N100W TO 13N112W TO 06N126W TO 07N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND TWO 
SHORTWAVE RIDGES. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH IS BROAD BUT BASICALLY 
LIES TO THE N OF 18N ALONG 123W WHILE THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH IS 
NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE N OF 17N ALONG 95W. AN ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 12N147W WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO THE 
AREA CRESTING ALONG POINTS 32N137W TO 31N127W TO 26N122W. UPPER 
MOISTURE IS IS STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA UNDER THIS 
RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N128W TO 
23N145W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 15N110W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO WELL BEYOND 32N107W. THIS RIDGE SEPARATES THE TWO 
TROUGHS MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO ENHANCES CONVECTION OVER NW OLD 
MEXICO. A SMALL MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVECTED N UNDER THIS RIDGE 
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CONUS DESERT 
SW...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 25N116W TO 
36N107W...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE NOW SPILLING E ACROSS THE 
RIDGE OVER W TEXAS. 

CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED BETWEEN 92W AND 128W...BUT 
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SEEMS TO REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W 
OF 95W. HOWEVER...THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION 
E OF 95W BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH ALONG 95W...AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA...AND CONTINUES IN A 
NARROW PLUME NE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OTHERWISE THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 12N W OF 100W.     

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 35N138W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 22N110W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 
28N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND NE WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED TODAY TO 15 TO 20 KT SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS N 
OF 25N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY 
THEN DIMINISH FRI.

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE 
DIMINISHED...BUT AN AREA OF E WINDS CONTINUES FROM 11N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT THU NIGHT. NE TO E WINDS 20 KT...SEAS TO 9 FT... 
CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 
ALONG 90W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

$$
NELSON