000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW 
AROUND THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AS THE ITCZ IS 
BECOMING MORE INFLECTED. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED LOWER 
PRESSURES ARE CAUSING 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...MERGING WITH AN EASTERLY JET FROM 10N-14N NEAR THE 
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N-15N 
BETWEEN 91W-102W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. DEEP 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
WAVE ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE 
CLOUD MOTIONS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N77W 07N84W 11N115W 07N126W 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
06N-14N BETWEEN 95W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 114W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO 
AND SOCORRO ISLAND NEAR 20N108W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N 
THROUGH SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA INTO NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED TSTMS 
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS ON TUE 
AND SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE PERSISTING FROM ACAPULCO NW NEAR 
THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE U.S. BORDER. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER 
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT IS NOT 
AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 
DEEP-LAYERED FLOW S OF 15N IS FAIRLY ZONAL AT THE MOMENT AND IS 
ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO MOVE QUICKLY WWD. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
PRIMARILY LIMITED TO S OF 14N EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF TSTMS 
LOCATED JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO STRONG 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW 
AND GAP WIND FLOW.

W OF 110W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 15N117W 
WITH A 45 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK CROSSING E OF 28N140W THEN 
FIZZLING AS IT APPROACHES 130W. ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR 
26N130W...CONVERGENCE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 12N W OF 115W...AND NEARLY CLOUDLESS 
SKIES N OF 22N BETWEEN 120W-133W. UPWELLING ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
IS SUPPORTING A STRONG MARINE LAYER WITH COASTAL STRATUS/FOG 
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST N OF 24N. FARTHER S...A MOISTURE 
SURGE IS NOTED NEAR 115W AND IS RUNNING INTO WEAK DIFFLUENCE 
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION CLUSTERING FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 110W-114W.

$$
BERG