000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 06N ALONG 98W TO 99W AND HAS MOVED W AT 
12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 101W WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 11N. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N ALONG 122W AND IS 
MOVING W AT 12 KT. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 120 NM OF  
07N122W.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 114W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 08N114W TO 08N136W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE 
WESTERNMOST TROUGH IS TO THE N OF 14N ALONG 120W WHILE THE 
EASTERNMOST TROUGH IS N OF 15N ALONG 95W. A GENTLE SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE IS OVER THE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 
130W...ORIGINATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N146W. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SEPARATES THE TROUGHS...ORIGINATING FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N108W...AND EXTENDING N WELL BEYOND 32N112W. 
A MOISTURE PLUME IS STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA WITHIN 150 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE ALONG 25N127W TO 22N144W. SOME UPPER 
MOISTURE IS ALSO INDICATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 
108W...MOVING N...BUT REMAINING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ALSO NOTE 
THAT TSTMS HAVE FLARED OVER MEXICO NEAR 28N107W AND WITHIN 15 NM 
OF LINE 25N106W TO 17N98W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE TRAPPED 
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR NOW. 

CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ SEEMS TO BE ENHANCED BETWEEN 92W AND 
115W...AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA...ALL IN 
RESPONSE TO THE EASTERNMOST UPPER TROUGH ALONG 95W. OTHERWISE 
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 13N W OF 100W.     

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE LIES ALONG 32N135W TO 17N107W. 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 28N E OF THE RIDGE TO 
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS 
WITH N SWELLS TO ABOUT 9 FT.

GAP WINDS...NE 20 KT WINDS ARE IN AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE SSW OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WED THEN 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT THU. ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...SEAS 
TO 9 FT...CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE W OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 100W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
LATE THU.

$$
NELSON