000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 05N ALONG 97W AND HAS MOVED W AT 12 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED WITH A 
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 08N AND
11N. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N ALONG 120W AND IS 
MOVING W AT 12 KT. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 15 NM OF  
08N121W.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 114W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 07N114W TO 07N136W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE 
WESTERNMOST TROUGH IS TO THE N OF 14N ALONG 121W WHILE THE 
EASTERNMOST TROUGH IS N OF 13N ALONG 97W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE 
SEPARATES THE TROUGHS...ORIGINATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
16N107W...AND EXTENDING N WELL BEYOND 32N116W. A MOISTURE PLUME 
IS STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
LINE FROM 26N129W TO 22N143W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS ALSO 
INDICATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 107W...MOVING N...BUT 
REMAINING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ SEEMS 
TO BE ENHANCED BETWEEN 90W AND 115W...AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOST OF 
FLORIDA...ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERNMOST UPPER TROUGH ALONG 
97W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 13N W OF 100W.     

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE LIES ALONG 32N135W TO 17N107W. 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 28N E OF THE RIDGE AND 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

GAP WINDS...NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE IN AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE SSW 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WED 
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT. ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE WSW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WED EXCEPT THAT THE WINDS WILL 
BECOME MORE EASTERLY...COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE 
E OF 93W AT 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
20 KT ON THU.

$$
NELSON