000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241024 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 7N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING INVOLVED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AS INDICATED BY THE CLOUD MOTION OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. RELATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W FROM 6N TO 14N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN APPARENT WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS RACED OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND IS NEAR 9N119W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE PRIMARILY ALONG THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 7N89W 7N100W 7N110W 9N120W 10N131W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-98W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W-105W... AND 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-115W...AND BETWEEN 128W-135W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 87W-90W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N125W...AND EXTENDS SE TO ABOUT 22N120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH TO 130W AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA IS SEEN IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 20N-27N W OF 130W. THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC ITCZ. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ENTERED THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND COVERS THE PORTION FROM 17N-28N W OF 130W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTING FROM 5N-13N W OF 128W IS DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ...WHICH IS FURTHER BEING AIDED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 134W S OF 10N AND BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N123W TO 8N130W. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N136W TO 8N139W IS MOVING W 10 KT. NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE W OF THE TROUGH...BUT WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH IN 24 HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE ALONG 30N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN FORECAST BECOME CUT-OFF NEAR 30N130W BY FRI...THEN SLOWLY LIFT N DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. E OF 120W... A RATHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING N AROUND 13 KT IS NOTED NEAR 21N117W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER W OF 120W. IT EXTENDS FROM 22N120W TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND THEN SSW TO 12N119W. A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED TO THE SE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT A PSN NEAR 19N106W. A RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO WELL N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE WRN UNITED STATES. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 12N115W. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THESE FEATURES IS COMBINING TO DRAW AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE N AND NEWD AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SPREAD BEYOND 120W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER W OF 120W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS AIDING ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 111W-115W. THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO SSW TO ACROSS SE MEXICO WILL HELP SET OFF TSTM ACTIVITY INLAND AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST SE OF EL SALVADOR IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WWD. DIFFLUENCE PRODUCED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NE OF PANAMA IS SETTING OFF CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRES MAY BECOME MORE DEFINITIVE OVER THE FAR ERN WATERS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W AND CONVECTION NEAR AND N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-98W AS STATED ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THE LOW...IF IT FORMS...SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST. GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20 KT N WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THU EVENING. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS MAY BE PROLONGED PENDING THE FORMATION OF LOW PRES AS MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT CLOSE TO THE GULF. EXPECT NW WINDS TO POSSIBLY BEGIN OVER THE FAR NE WATERS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA SLIDES TO THE SSE WHILE BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. NW SWELLS UP TO 9 FT ARE FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE TO AFFECT THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE