000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 95W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W S OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. 
SPORADIC CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE BETWEEN 107W 
AND 112W.

...ITCZ...10N85W TO 09N100W TO 10N116W TO 07N121W TO 10N131W TO 
07N140W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO 
WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER E OF 
120W. THE FIRST IS A POORLY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR 
11N111W...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ANALYZED 
ALONG 117W. SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY 
BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE BUT HAS LEFT BEHIND A WEAK MID-LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE SECOND AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 93W...IS GIVEN BY A LARGE AREA OF 
CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA TO A FEW 
HUNDRED MILES S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS 
BROAD...WITH LITTLE SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OR CENTRAL FEATURES.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE BLOWING ACROSS NICARAGUA AND COSTA 
RICA AND HAVE SPARKED A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
...WHICH BEGAN FRI LAST WEEK. AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS DID SHOW 
NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...AND NOAA 
WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF UP TO 8 OR 9 FT. THE 
PRESENT GAP WIND EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS....THOUGH HOW LONG IT LASTS AS WELL AS ITS STRENGTH AND 
WILL HINGE VERY MUCH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE S 
OF 10N AND TRACKING W THE NEXT FEW DAYS OR THE LACK THEREOF.

ELSEWHERE...RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH IS ALSO DRIVING A GAP 
WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHICH APPARENTLY BEGAN 
AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY EVENING. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS 
BEEN NO FURTHER MICROWAVE DATA OR FORTUITOUSLY PLACED SHIP 
REPORTS TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT GAP 
WINDS.  HOWEVER...THE EDGE OF AN EARLY AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS DID 
SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD JUST S OF 10N 
AND POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 
93W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF 
THE CURRENT EVENT.  FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE INDICATION 
THAT GAP WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC FOR ALMOST 48 HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH. SEAS COULD 
BUILD UP TO 9 FT NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
IN N SWELL.

FINALLY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD PRODUCE NW WINDS TO 20 KT RIGHT 
NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER.  NW SWELL OF UP TO 8 OR 9 FT SHOULD 
ALSO CROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AN GENERALLY AFFECT THE REGION N 
OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W THROUGH MID-WEEK.  IN ADDITION 
...LONG PERIOD SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS 
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE EQUATOR AGAIN...THE CURRENT SWELL RELATED 
TO STRONG CYCLONIC ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MID- 
LATITUDES OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN EXPANDING AREA OF THE SW SWELL 
IS EXPECTED BY WED...WITH THE MAIN AREA AFFECTED S OF 06N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 123W.

$$
KIMBERLAIN