000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 98W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SPORADIC CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE BETWEEN 107W AND 112W. ...ITCZ...10N85W TO 09N100W TO 10N116W TO 07N121W TO 10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W TO 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 135W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER E OF 120W...WHICH ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST IS A NEWLY-FORMED AND WESTWARD-DRIFTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR 11N111W...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ANALYZED ALONG 116W. AT PRESENT...THERE IS LITTLE HISTORY ON THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. THE SECOND AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 92W...IS MUCH BROADER AND LACKS ANY STRUCTURE OR ORGANIZATION. LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND BOTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE BLOWING ACROSS NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AND HAVE SPARKED A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WHICH BEGAN FRI LAST WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE LAST RELIABLE QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THIS REGION WAS YESTERDAY EVENING...A LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS DID HAPPEN TO RECORD SPOTTY NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR ASCAT WINDS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF MARINE WINDS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT WINDS TO 25 KT MAY BE OCCURRING IN A NARROW BAND FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 91W....WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESENT GAP WIND EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD S OF 10N...THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF THE GAP WIND EVENT MAY HINGE VERY MUCH ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH IS ALSO DRIVING A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHICH APPARENTLY BEGAN AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY EVENING. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO FURTHER MICROWAVE DATA OR FORTUITOUSLY PLACED SHIP REPORTS TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WINDS. HOWEVER...THE EDGE OF AN EARLY AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS DID SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD JUST S OF 10N AND POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 92W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF THE CURRENT EVENT. FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE INDICATION THAT GAP WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 9 FT IN N SWELL. FINALLY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD PRODUCE NW WINDS TO 20 KT RIGHT NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER. NW SWELL OF UP TO 8 OR 9 FT SHOULD ALSO CROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AN GENERALLY AFFECT THE REGION N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W THROUGH MID-WEEK. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE EQUATOR AGAIN...THE CURRENT SWELL RELATED TO STRONG CYCLONIC ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MID-LATITUDES OVER THE WEEKEND. AN EXPANDING AREA OF THE SW SWELL IS EXPECTED BY WED...WITH THE MAIN AREA AFFECTED S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 117W. $$ KIMBERLAIN