000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231441
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. 
THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT 
REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
NEAR 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. ITCZ PRECIPITATION TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE WAVE IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 
16N IN GUATEMALA TO 19N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W
AND 90W...UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
A POSSIBLE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
20N115W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N111W 20N115W 13N121W.

...ITCZ...

09N83W 08N89W 08N93W 09N103W 06N113W 07N122W 09N128W 07N140W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN
86W AND 89W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W...FROM 05N
TO 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 94W...AND FROM 07N TO 9N BETWEEN 137W
AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSSIBLE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
20N115W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N111W 20N115W 13N121W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA TO
THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND 24N111W 13N121W...
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 128W FROM THE ITCZ 
TO 21N/22N.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA TO 
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF HAWAII TOWARD 20N140W...STAYING WEST OF
135W FROM 19N TO 24N.

GAP WINDS...BOTH REGULAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 
LAST NIGHT SHOWED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC (NW-N 20 KT) AND GULF 
PAPAGAYO WINDS (NE 20-25 KT) ALREADY IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS 
SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THEIR
ENDING DAY MAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED
BY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ABOUT 72 HOURS INTO THE FUTURE. 

POSSIBLE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT TO BEGIN IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN WATERS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS EVENING 
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.

$$
MT