000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE AREA ALONG 87W N OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING INVOLVED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ GENERALLY BETWEEN 85W-92W AS REVEALED BY BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT. OBSERVED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 7N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN APPARENT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N112W AS INFERRED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY CONSISTS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 6N90W 10N101W 8N110W 11N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-86W...AND BETWEEN 90W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-129W...AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W-136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N117W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N132W...AND EXTENDS SE TO ABOUT 22N123W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA IS SEEN IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG 140W FROM 19N-22N. THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC ITCZ. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ENTERED THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND COVERS THE PORTION FROM 18N-27N W OF 135W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTING FROM 4N-12N W OF 124W IS DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ...WHICH IS FURTHER BEING AIDED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 140W S OF 10N AND BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N123W TO 8N130W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. THIS MOISTURE FIELD IS SPREADING WWD UNDER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N134W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WWD WITH ELY TRADES REACHING A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM 15N135W TO 8N137W BY LATE TUE THEN BECOMING DIFFUSED. E OF 120W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N120W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD TO ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FURTHER NEWD FROM THERE TO OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES. ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 27N. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNW ABOUT 10 KT IS NEAR 18N116W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW. IT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER W OF 120W. A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED TO THE E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N108W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 12N109W. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THESE FEATURES IS COMBINING TO DRAW AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE N AND NEWD AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SPREAD BEYOND 120W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER W OF 125W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N108W IS CONVECTION AT 117W... AND THAT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W. THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO SW TO ACROSS SE MEXICO IS HELPING TO IGNITE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR OF SE MEXICO JUST N OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FURTHER LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE DERIVED FROM THE STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 83W-88W SWWD MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE OTHER STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-95W. DIFFLUENCE PRODUCED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NE OF PANAMA IS SETTING OFF CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE GULF PANAMA. A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRES MAY BECOME MORE DEFINITIVE OVER THE FAR ERN WATERS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W AND CONVECTION NEAR AND N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 83W-86W WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THE LOW PRES...IF IT FORMS...SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WNW TRACK. GAP WINDS...BOTH REGULAR AND HI RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC (NW-N 20 KT) AND GULF PAPAGAYO WINDS (NE 20-25 KT) ALREADY IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THEIR ENDING DAY MAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF LOW STATED ABOVE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO POSSIBLY BEGIN OVER THE FAR NE WATERS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA SLIDES TO THE SSE WHILE BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. $$ AGUIRRE