000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 22 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 7N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG...AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N. WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 107W-109W. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N85W 6N92W 10N104W 11N113W 13N121W 6N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-8N E OF 82W. SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 123W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 125W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N138W...AND THEN EXTENDS SE TO 27N135W TO 25N130W AND TO NEAR 20N125W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IDENTIFIED ON VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ...EXCEPT FROM 18N TO 22N W OF 130W WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE INTO THE AREA FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC ITCZ REGION. A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 14N143W WITH A RIDGE NE TO 16N136W TO 20N129W. THE RIDGE IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OBSERVED FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. THIS MOISTURE FIELD IS SPREADING WWD UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N121W 1012 MB WITH A TROUGH SW TO 10N126W IS MOVING W 10 KT. ONE ISOLATED CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SW OF THE LOW IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION RELATED TO THE LOW. THE LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WHILE THE TROUGH CONTINUES WWD UNDER TRADE ELY FLOW REACHING A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM 14N128W TO 10N132W BY LATE MON NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. E OF 125W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N121W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 21N125W...AND ANOTHER ONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND N FROM THERE TO OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NW OF A LINE FROM 25N109W TO 20N125W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NW ABOUT 15 KT IS NEAR 16N115W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW. IT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A NEW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS SEWD NEAR 125W LATE TUE OR EARLY WED. A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 14N107W...WHILE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 23N107W. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THESE FEATURES IS COMBINING TO DRAW AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE N AND W AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SPREAD BEYOND 125W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER W OF 125W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N107W IS SUPPORTING ITCZ CONVECTION ALREADY ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W. THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO SW TO ACROSS SE MEXICO IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO. THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST SW OF GUATEMALA IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE BEING DERIVED FROM MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER ERN NICARAGUA SWWD MERGING WITH EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BEING GENERATED BY ITCZ CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE HERE WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. A FEW TRANSIENT RIPPLES OF LOW PRES MOVING FROM E TO W MAY BE SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ OVER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT NW WINDS TO POSSIBLY BEGIN OVER THE FAR NE WATERS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA SLIDES TO SE AND BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WATERS ON MON NIGHT. NE 20 KT GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS. PERHAPS ...THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE UPCOMING TROPICAL WAVE WITH ATTENDANT POSSIBLE LOW PRES INCREASING THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GAP. MODELS AGAIN SHOW POSSIBLE N WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING EARLY ON MON AND LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE