000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 8N TO 16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS STATED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 
08N95W TO 12N116W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 
113W...AND BETWEEN 120W AND 128W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 98W.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 
128W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N131W TO 25N140W. THE 
TROUGH IS MOVING NE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAS SHEARING OUT WITH 
TIME. AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE 
WAS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND WAS MOST PRONOUNCED 
IN A 120 NM WIDE RIBBON JUST  E OF THE AXIS NOTED ABOVE. GLOBAL 
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATED WINDS AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WERE STRONGEST 
WITHIN THIS AREA AND WERE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE. AT THE 
SURFACE... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N131W TO 
28N138W. WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT 
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIMITED. 

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 23N121W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 105W N OF ABOUT 
10N EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. MOSTLY 
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE 
SURFACE...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 14N119W AND IS 
MOVING W ABOUT 10 KNOTS. NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT 
AND ALLOWED SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLIER NEAR THE LOW 
LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED 
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED. THE LOW IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE W OR WNW ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
CURRENT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 9 FT TO SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. 

E OF 105W...
MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER 
THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 10N WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 
OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS HAS MISSED 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER NWP MODELS SUGGEST NE WINDS OF 20 
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB