000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 8N TO 16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS STATED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM W 
AND 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 
08N95W TO 12N116W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 
96W...AND BETWEEN 121W AND 125W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 
97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 23N W OF 
125W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N132W TO 25N140W. THE 
TROUGH IS MOVING NE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAS SHEARING OUT WITH 
TIME. AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WAS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATED WINDS AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WERE STRONGEST ON THE E SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH AND WERE IN THE 45-60 KT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE... 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N133W TO BEYOND 28N140W. WINDS 
ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT IS LIMITED. 

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 23N121W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 105W N OF ABOUT 
10N EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. MOSTLY 
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE 
SURFACE...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 14N118W AND IS 
MOVING W ABOUT 10 KNOTS. NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT 
AND ALLOWED SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE W OR WNW ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 9 FEET WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS 
OF THE CENTER. 

E OF 105W...
MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER 
THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 10N WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 
OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. A 1200Z HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS 
INDICATES NE WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITHIN 
36-48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB