000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 7N TO 16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS STATED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN TWO 
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 15N.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W TO 
08N90W TO 07N100W TO 12N115W TO 05N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 06N80W. 

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 
95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF ABOUT 25N W OF 125W WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N134W TO 25N139W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING E 10 
TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGEST OVER THE E SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH AND MEASURE ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z 
GFS MODEL AT 300 MB. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 
32N134W TO BEYOND 29N140W. WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FEATURE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 25N118W AND IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 105W 
N OF ABOUT 10N EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 
TROUGH. MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N117W AND IS 
MOVING W ABOUT 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
W OR WNW ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH WINDS 20 TO 
25 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 9 FEET WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. 

E OF 105W...
MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER 
THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 10N WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 
OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. A 1200Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES NE WINDS 
20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
CAB