000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210956 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 7N TO 16N IS MOVING W 13 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS STATED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N90W TO 10N100W 13N113W 7N125W 6N132W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-80W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-100W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 12N94W 14N94W 16N94W...AND OVER GULF OF PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 115W... A RATHER SHARPLY DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N137W...AND EXTENDS SW TO OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 27N140W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES SW AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TO JUST NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SE 15 KT...CUTS INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA THROUGH 32N137W... AND EXITS THE AREA AT 29N140W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN ABOUT 480 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED 23N122W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 17N129W TO 12N135W TO 10N140W. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATES STRONG SW WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT MAINLY BETWEEN 120W-135W. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME ACTIVE NEAR THIS AREA AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OBSERVED FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 115W AND 131W IS GRADUALLY BEING ADVECTED WWD BY THE MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS FOUND HERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N115W 1012 MB IS MOVING W 10 KT. A RATHER PERSISTENT LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN NOTED WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6-12 HRS. E OF 115W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOTED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N107W IS TO THE SE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N110W TO 26N110W. THE TROUGH IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY DUE IT BEING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO WELL BEYOND THE REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS S TO 20N...AND THEN BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 15-20 KT NEAR 17N109W. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS DEPICTS THE SECTOR OF THE AREA FROM 3N-15N. CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED OVER AND NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT OVER AND TO THE SW OF GUATEMALA DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO SW TO SE MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE HERE WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS. A FEW RIPPLES OF LOW PRES MAY BE SEEN MOVING FROM E TO W ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT NW WINDS TO POSSIBLY BEGIN OVER THE FAR NE WATERS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA SLIDES TO THE SE WHILE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. $$ AGUIRRE