000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N TO 15N ALONG 103W MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
8N-10N BETWEEN 101W-103W. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE 
WAVE.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 06N77W TO 10N102W TO 09N110W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 108W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 
124W. 

...DISCUSSION...
STRONGLY SHEARED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NW OF THE AREA IS 
LIFTING OUT TO THE N. THE S END OF THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED INTO 
A DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO JUST NE OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROUGH/DEFORMATION WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY WITHIN AN AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 128W AND 
138W. EXPANSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 
15N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. A COUPLE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS 
WERE NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE FIRST OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 
28N108W AND THE SECOND NEAR 19N122W. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS AROUND 
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 
120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-120W. UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS S CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO 18N113W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER HONDURAS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN 
STRONG TSTMS JUST OFF THE COAST FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 88W-91W.

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 13N113W. THE LOW IS 
PULLING N OF THE ITCZ AND CONSISTS OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY ONLY MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE BROAD HIGH PRES 
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PATTERN N OF 14N W OF 109W. TYPICAL 
BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 15NW OF 
120W.

$$
COBB