000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 99W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE 
GENERALLY S OF 12N TO THE ITCZ. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATED WELL DEFINED LOW AND MID LEVEL TURNING OF THE CLOUD 
ELEMENTS IN THE VICINITY OF 8N99W. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 08N78W TO 13N104W TO 10N120W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS 
AND 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 115W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 118 AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHEARING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE NW 
OF THE AREA ALONG 32N137W TO 25N147W. THIS TROUGH IS MERGING 
INTO AN AREA OF GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE NW PORTION NW OF A 
LINE FROM 10N140W THROUGH 30N125W. A PATCH OF STRONG MID LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED FROM 20N TO 30N W OF 128W. A 55-70 KT WIND 
MAXIMA JUST SE OF THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE IS ADVECTING MID AND 
UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ITCZ MOISTURE NE TOWARD S CALIFORNIA. 
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SE ARIZONA ACROSS 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
NEAR 18N121W. ANOTHER SMALLER ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 
14N106W. RATHER SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 18N108W COMBINES WITH WEAK RIDGE S OF THE CIRCULATION TO 
PRODUCE STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W.

SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 16N107W TO A 1011 
MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N108W TO 8N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW PRES.

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N118W TO 8N121W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 110W.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED
TO BLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 
18 HOURS OR SO WITH 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED. 

$$
COBB