000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191517 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 97W MOVING W 10-15 KT. N SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ALONG AND S OF THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 7N82W 12N105W 10N115W 7N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 94W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 112W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 20N140W TO 10N124W WITH SHARP 
DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR 9N132W. A 45-60 KT WIND MAX SE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ITCZ 
MOISTURE DEBRIS NE...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF 
THE WIND MAX N OF 20N W OF 130W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM SE ARIZONA ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AND 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 18N120W. UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N110W COMBINES WITH WEAK RIDGE S OF 
THE CIRCULATION TO PRODUCE STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 13N107W TO A 1010 
MB LOW PRES NEAR 9N110W TO 6N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FROM 11N-14N 
BETWEEN 107W-111W.

ANOTHER 1010 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ IS CENTERED NEAR 
9N118W. THE LOW HAS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH ONLY A FEW 
SHOWERS N OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 
14N W OF 110W.

$$
DGS